Sports Addict Challenge - MLB Playoffs

Well, the challenge might not be happening in 2009, but we still have some unfinished business to attend to here in '08. I, for one, would like to prevent Bulletsquib from waltzing away with bragging rights. So email your baseball post-season picks to baywatching@gmail.com or leave a comment on this post sometime today.

1st round winners (8 pts each)
League champions (16 pts each)
World Series champion (32 pts)
Bonus: World Series MVP (4 pts)

And remember, you can check up-to-date 2008 challenge standings here.

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Change of Plans - Football Predictions '08

Sometimes things just don't work out the way you draw them up. Just ask Niners' GM Scot McCloughan, who only five months ago ponied up $8 million of the York family's money to pay for Alex Smith's contract option.

As we all know, for better or worse, Smith will start the season on the bench, thanks to a certain NFL-minimum-wage scrapper. And while I am thankful that I do not have to swallow an investment (or suffer an embarrassment) the size of McCloughan's, I have decided it is time to pull the plug on an experiment here at Baywatching as well.

Due to fizzling enthusiasm, the Sports Addict Challenge will not be back for a second year after all. It turns out this might be an idea whose time has not yet come. With our competitive juices already finding outlets in an often-absurd number of fantasy leagues, the SAC never quite panned out into the blog-hits-boosting gimmick it was envisioned as. Oh, well -- I guess writing interesting posts was a better way to acquire readers in the first place.

On that note, I still like playing the opening week guessing game, and I know there are more than a few of you out there who enjoy preseason bloviating at much as I do, so consider this an open thread for football predictions of any kind. Any takers to drop a comment? We'll revisit the conversation in January to see who is prescient and who is an idiot.

Enjoy the kickoff weekend -- put your feet up, eat and drink too much, and yell at your friends about how overrated the Seahawks are and why Deuce McAllister is a perfectly legitimate #2 fantasy back this season. And prepare (I promise) for an avalanche of news, conjecture, and reflections on the oddities of the Bay Area sporting world right here at Baywatching.

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Announcing the 2009 Sports Addict Challenge

The 2008 challenge is winding down, with only the baseball postseason left to pick, and Bulletsquib is running away with it. But despair not! Football season is upon us, which means you can try your luck again in the 2009 challenge. It all starts this Thursday night when the NCAA's kickoff weekend begins.

For those who didn't play last year, the Sports Addict Challenge is your chance to compete for bragging rights in a multi-sport pick 'em decathlon.  At the beginning of the season for each of the five sports we cover on this site (NFL, NBA, MLB, and NCAA football & basketball), each contestant makes a set of predictions as to how the season will turn out. At the end of each regular season, we each fill out a playoff bracket (or a bowl pick 'em for college football). Every set of picks, pre-season & post-season, is worth 100 points, making 1000 points possible for the entire year (okay, it's really more like 14 months, running from the beginning of football season until the following World Series).  To this point, we have come up with no prize to offer except the satisfaction of knowing that you are, in fact, smarter than a bunch of other yahoos who think they know something about the sporting world.

Read on for more details on your first task -- preseason football picks...

To join the Challenge, send in the following picks to baywatching@gmail.com or leave them in a comment on this post for all to see. Good luck, and may the most truly addicted win.

NCAA Football
Picks due by the time the Pac-10 season kicks off in Palo Alto at 6:00 this Thursday evening.

Major Conference Champions (8 pts each)

Pac-10 _________________________

Big 12 _________________________

Big Ten _________________________

SEC _________________________

Big East _________________________

ACC _________________________

BCS Championship Game (12 pts each)

_________________________ vs _________________________

BCS Champion (24 pts)

_________________________

Bonus: Heisman Trophy Winner (4 pts)

_________________________


NFL
Due by kickoff the first game of the NFL season, Thurs 9/4 at 4pm.

Division Champions* (4 pts each)

NFC West _________________________

NFC North _________________________

NFC South _________________________

NFC East _________________________

AFC West _________________________

AFC North _________________________

AFC South _________________________

AFC East _________________________

Wild Card Teams* (2 pts each)

NFC _________________________

NFC _________________________

AFC _________________________

AFC _________________________

Conference Champions (12 pts each)

NFC _________________________

AFC _________________________

Super Bowl Champions (24 pts)

_________________________

Bonus: Regular Season Individual Awards

MVP (4 pts) _________________________

Defensive Player of the Year (4 pts) _________________________

Rookie of the Year: Offense (2 pts) _________________________

Rookie of the Year: Defense (2 pts) _________________________

*If your pick for a division champ makes the playoff as a wild card, you will be awarded 2 points instead of the full 4. If your wild card pick wins their division, you will still be awarded 2 points.

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Optimism Day!Starring Mike Martz and Vernon Davis

Editor's note -- Baywatching is pleased to announce the return of our long-lost 49ers analyst, Hot 'n' Fresh. He has been unable to access the site from his computer at work, so he sent his post along to me. Read on for the first 2008 installment of HnF's (hopefully) weekly column of observations and analysis. With any luck, it will kick-start a string of 49ers discussion in the comments section every week. Enjoy!

Last night’s game was the first I was able to watch much of this season, so fortunately it was also the one that gave viewers out most extensive look to date at the 2008 team, with most of the starters playing into the third quarter. I realize this is only the pre-season, but I observed some trends last night that should carry over once the real games begin...

1. The offensive line will be the 49ers’ most improved unit in 2008.

The faces are pretty much the same, but the story will be completely different this year. Last night, San Francisco’s o-line line pretty much had its way with a very good Chicago front six, both in run blocking and pass blocking schemes. The porous nature of last year’s line was well documented, but even at the time I felt that the scheme was more to blame than the personnel. After all, the starting line was nearly identical to the 2006 group, which had produced a 1600 yard rusher. Last night, Mike Martz mixed the run and the pass very well and kept the Chicago defense on its heels. The best news has to be that last night’s starting line excelled despite missing three projected starters in David Baas, Adam Snyder and Jonas Jennings. All three quarterbacks had plenty of time to throw and were able to sit in the pocket and wait for receivers routes to fully develop. The line’s most impressive success, though, came in the running game, especially when the first unit was on the field. They consistently made a strong initial push off the line and showed that Martz’s scheme of pulling guards will create a lot of room for Gore to run this season. Not only is this unit talented and playing with confidence, but (if everyone gets healthy) they are deep as well. On the telecast last night, Troy Aikman claimed that Mike Martz had told him that this could be the most talented offensive line he has ever coached. Comments like that coming from a man who coached two Super Bowl teams with dynamic offenses should give 49ers fans confidence in the most important unit on the team.

2. Allen Rossum was a great pick-up
I am going to venture to say that the 49ers will boast the best starting field position in the NFL this season, solely due to the addition of Allen Rossum to the return game. Rossum is not flashy and may not take many kicks back for touchdowns, but his style will lend itself to good field position for the 49ers. I remember when I was just a lad and Rod Woodson was one of the best return men in the league for Pittsburgh. When he was asked what made him so successful, his reply was simple: “when I catch the ball, I run as fast as I can straight ahead.” Unleess you are Devin Hester, this strategy is a must, and Allen Rossum gets it. He catches the ball and looks for a seam. Even after 11 years in the league, this guy is still explosive, and his acceleration is what makes him so successful. Last night, Rossum didn’t do anything too flashy, but he showed great burst and didn’t make any mistakes while giving the 49ers decent field position. He did suffer an injury late in the game, which the team classified as a “back contusion.” Hopefully that means nothing more than a bad bruise. If Rossum remains healthy this year, the 49ers will start most of their drives on the right side of the thirty, and you can expect Allen Rossum to mix in a big return once every couple of games.

3. Alex Smith looks like a beaten man
Much will be made of how well J.T. O’Sullivan played, especially compared to Alex Smith’s mediocre performance. J.T. looked poised in the pocket and confident running the first team, while Alex looked frenetic and definitely hurt his case by missing a couple of wide open receivers. But the thing that most clearly tells me that this quarterback competition is over Alex Smith’s body language. You can see in his face and his hanging head that he is a man without much confidence right now. He has no swagger, and I think that is what is putting O’Sullivan over the top in Nolan’s mind. It seems that Nolan was hoping that this quarterback competition would bring out the fire in Smith and he would wrestle the job away from the other two while inspiring confidence in his teammates. This has not been the case. It could be due to the learning curve he had to deal with in being asked to learn yet another offensive scheme or to the weight of all the high expectations that have yet to be fulfilled. Regardless of what is going on in his head, Nolan and the team will not have confidence that he can be the leader they need until he starts to believe in himself. Even before a play begins, Smith has the tendency to uncomfortably rock back and forth under center in a manner that reminds me a bit of “Rainman” at the black jack table. Alex Smith is probably the most physically gifted of the three quarterbacks and may still take the starting job back when he starts to feel more comfortable in the offense, but for right now he has the look of a defeated man.

4. Vernon Davis will be key to the 49ers success
Davis will be a key contributor on offense, but not in the way that I expected when we drafted him. I have read extensively about what a great blocker Davis is, but I never really paid attention until last night. After watching the game and then going back to watch Davis specifically on many plays, I am convinced that he may be our best offensive lineman. The guy is a mauler! On running plays Davis consistently had the biggest push off of the line, and on passing plays he matched up one-on-one with speed rushing ends, who he absolutely dominated. There was one play in particular from the first quarter that stands out. It was a passing play, and Davis was lined up outside of Staley. At the snap of the ball, Alex Brown (a good pass rushing defensive end and the Bears’ leader in sacks last year) took a wide speed rush to try to get around the corner. Davis was assigned to stay in and help Staley but instead was able to stifle Brown’s rush alone. That allowed Staley to look back inside to help the left guard. This is just one example of what VD was able to bring in pass protection all night long. Vernon Davis dominated the lineman he matched up against in both run and pass blocking. This will obviously give the 49ers quarterbacks a better pocket to work with, but it should also open up opportunities for Davis on play action in the red zone and in the deep passing game. When a linebacker has to worry about a tight end either knocking him on his butt in the run game or flying by him on a deep route, he plays a little less disciplined. We saw this on two long passes last night to Davis, one for a gain of 40 on a perfectly thrown ball from O’Sullivan down the right side line and one under-thrown ball from Alex Smith where Davis has his man (a safety) beat deep. This guy is explosive and will dominate in the trenches as well in addition to making two or three catches a game for big gains.

5. The 49ers will (finally) be enjoyable to watch this year.
Last year, even their five victories were difficult to watch. The offense was unimaginative, and you almost felt sorry for the defense even though they put up a valiant fight week in and week out. Mike Martz knows offense, and last night gave a preview of how different the 49ers’ offense will look. They will take chances down the field, and they will open up more holes for Gore by giving defenses multiple blocking schemes to deal with. I think this could be the year the 49ers get over the hump and make a return to the playoffs, but regardless of their record at the end of the year, they should be fun to watch.

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Jeff Kent is an Ass

Giants fans and Dodgers fans have now found common ground: we all think Jeff Kent is a pompous ass. Jeff Kent took swipes at the Dodger's legendary (and incredibly boring) announcer, Vin Scully, in an interview with the LA Times' TJ Simers.

Scully keeps noting that Kent's numbers have skyrocketed since the Manny arrived in town, and Kent doesn't like it one bit. One might also mention that Kent's career numbers would probably not be Hall of Fame level had he not batted behind the Juiced One.

A Dodger fan friend of mine posted the following in a Fantasy Football forum, and I just had to share it. It's nice to see the Dodgers fans riled up enough to boo one of their best players.

Jeff Kent Uses Ball Sweat to Comb His Stache

Any of you catch Kent's latest grump fest over what Vin Scully said? I say that porn-stache donning, white trash role model needs to shut his dang goofy face. I hope enough fans have heard this story that they boo Kent when he bats tonight. I know that most professional atheletes are arrogant, Kent is delusionally arrogant as well as being a douche. He won't recognize that he owes much of his career success to batting ahead and behind of huge hitters like Bonds and now Manny. What a tool. Don't you dare speak ill of Scully you redkneck ingrate, or the wrath of the almighty Vin will smote thee! (Courtesy of Heathcliff)

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Hope Can Kill a Man

Couldn't watch the Niners last night (tough to get local SF broadcasts out here in Jersey, as it turns out), so all I have to go on is the different perspectives that pop up all over the series of tubes. The general narrative I'm seeing in the aftermath of last night's drubbing of the Packers goes something like this:

- J.T. O'Sullivan (8 of 17, 154 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT) offers a bizarre mixture of game-changing plays and dumbfounding turnovers.

- JTO outplayed Alex Smith (5 of 12, 62 yds) by a bunch.

- Mike Nolan is still blowing smoke about the QB competition not being over. This could be an attempt to avoid compounding an already brutal week for Smith, whose best friend committed suicide last Sunday.

- Josh Morgan (5 rec, 114 yds, including a 59-yard TD) is a stud, possibly the steal of this season's draft, a la Marques Colston in 2006. He's well on his way to earning a starting spot.

- Our pass rush looked vastly improved, with the most notable contribution coming from Ray McDonald (1.5 sacks). McDonald & Justin Smith worked very well running stunts together for the second consecutive week.

- The right side of the offensive line (Jonas Jennings & Tony Wragge) continued to look great, while Joe Staley continued to struggle in pass protection in his new spot at left tackle. Speculation is rising that Wragge could end up starting even after David Baas returns from his torn pectoral muscle (which, incidentally, sounds excruciating).

- As great as Allen Rossum's performance was (67-yard punt return TD), our kickoff & punt coverage teams looked bad enough to make special teams a wash.

I'm almost angry that the team posted such a big win last night. I've been doing my best to keep my expectations as low as possible, and anything that tempts me to do otherwise is quite unwelcome at this point in the season. My brain knows how meaningless the preseason is, but my gut is lobbying hard for an increase in optimism. So far, I have succeeded in not listening.

Is there anyone out there who watched the game with their own eyes? Drop a comment with your thoughts/observations. I need something to tide me over until the Niners hit national TV on Thursday.

On Tap For Today

10:30am (CSBA) - Giants (51-71) vs. Braves (56-67)
Lincecum (12-3, 2.67) vs. Morton (3-6, 6.11)
As Brandon Webb's numbers continue to improve (along with his run support), Timmy's Cy Young chances are taking a hit. But you never know what a spectacular final six weeks might do.

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All Together Now, Breathe...

I went through all five stages of Tim Lincecum Injury Watch in under three hours last night. If you were watching the game, you know exactly what I'm talking about: disbelief, rage, utter hopelessness, bullpen disgust (I know, that isn't really unique to last night, but bear with me), and sweet relief. Props to Mercury beat writer Andrew Baggerly for getting the word out so quick. If I had gone to bed thinking that Timmy was headed to the DL, I'm sure I could have mustered the energy to drag myself to work this morning.

On a completely unrelated note, congrats to Tavita Pritchard for hanging on to the Cardinal QB job for the time being.

And don't look now, but it might be time to invest in that J.T. O'Sullivan jersey you've always wanted. Be the first one on your block to rock the #14!

Okay, that last paragraph just killed my Lincecum-is-okay buzz. Time to get back to work before I start crying all over the keyboard.

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News & Notes - Mon 8/11

What's better than a walk-off win over the Dodgers? TWO walk-off wins over the Dodgers! Also, P-Dub has a new partner in the middle, and tomorrow is (possibly) the day of reckoning for Tavita Pritchard and his competitors for the Stanford QB job.

Great weekend for Giants baseball, and I was lucky enough to be watching both dramatic climaxes here in Jersey, although I confess myself a bit disappointed at Matt Cain for not giving Jeff Kent a little chin music after his pointing-at-Billy-Sadler-in-the-dugout-while-rounding-the-bases routine the previous evening. Now it's on to Houston, where the Gigantes will attempt to win their 4th consecutive series against an Astros team that has been on a tear.

Brandon Moore, the 49ers' leading tackler just two seasons ago, has been released. To take his place, the team has finally consummated the much-rumored Takeo Spikes deal. Random fact of the day: Spikes was a groomsman in Nate Clements' wedding. So that has to be good for team chemistry, right? The opening day starting LBs will likely be Spikes, Willis, Manny Lawson, and Parys Haralson (unless Nolan opts to move Justin Smith to OLB and start Ray MacDonald over Haralson).

Buried in this collection of notes from Stanford Training camp, we discover that Coach Harbaugh has told his team that he plans to release a depth chart tomorrow. He was coy with reporters when asked if this would end the starting QB debate, but at the start of camp he had claimed he wanted that position settled within 8 or 9 days. That would suggest that whoever sits atop the heap tomorrow has to be the prohibitive favorite to start in two weeks against Oregon St. Will it be incumbent Tavita Pritchard (the fearless leader who toppled the Trojans), Michigan transfer Jason Forcier (the most mobile of the three, who has to be secretly kicking himself to have left Ann Arbor before Rich Rodriguez arrived with the spread offense in tow), or sophomore Alex Loukas (big strong arm, but the only one of the three with no collegiate experience).

This San Francisco Chronicle profile suggests that the decision could come down to speed (Forcier) vs arm strength (Loukas) vs intangibles (Pritchard). I'm pulling for Tavita, having lived in his hometown of Tacoma for seven years (he and my wife worked together at a summer camp several years ago, in fact), but having Harbaugh make the call gives me confidence no matter where it goes -- I'd rather have a team in his hands than Mike Nolan's any day.

On Tap For Today

5pm (CSBA) - Giants (50-66) vs. Astros (58-59)
Sanchez (8-8, 4.64) vs. Backe (6-11, 5.35)
Season stats are a bit deceiving for this pitching match-up. Sanchez hasn't won a game since June, and during that dry spell he has pitched only 26 innings in 6 starts, recording a 7.96 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. The team is concerned that they have overworked him in his first year as a big league starter, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them shut him down early the way they did last year for Lincecum. On the plus side, Backe gave up 11 runs in 3 1/3 innings his last time out, so maybe we'll put some runs on the board to support the Dirty.

5pm (ESPN) - Bengals vs. Packers
Aaron Rodgers makes his post-Favre debut in front of the hometown malcontents. Poor bastard.

8pm (CSBA) - Stanford Football season preview

8:15pm (NBColympics.com) - Men's Basketball: Croatia (1-0) vs. Russia (1-0)
International basketball is incredibly entertaining, and Andrei Kirilenko's Russian squad is the defending European champion. I had to laugh out loud during the Spain-Greece game the other night as NBA announcers mocked the Olympic officiating (somewhere, Tim Donaghy is smiling).

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